Total: Kerry 252, Bush 286

Kerry states, with electoral vote, results in bold, and latest poll spreads:

Strong Kerry

California 55

• 55-44 / +11
• Survey USA 54-43 / +11
• Rasmussen 53-43 / +10
• Field 49-42 / +7
• LA Times 58-40 / +18

Connecticut 7

• 54-44 / +10
• Research 2000 52-42 / +10
• Quinnipiac 49-42 / +7
• ARG 54-39 / +15

D.C. 3

• 90-9 / +81
• ARG 78-11 / +67

Delaware 3

• 53-46 / +7
• West Chester Univ. 45.2-37.6 / +7.6
• ARG 50-41 / +9

Illinois 21

• 55-45 / +10
• Rasmussen 51-43 / +8
• Survey USA 54-42 / +12
• Research 2000 54-40 / +14
• Richard Day 52-42 / +10
• Market Shares 50-42 / +8
• ARG 49-43 / +6

Maryland 10

• 56-43 / +13
• Rasmussen 52-44 / +8
• Survey USA 54-43 / +11
• Ipsos 56-39 / +17
• Gonzales 52-42 / +10
• ARG 52-43 / +9

Massachussetts 12

• 62-37 / +25
• Center for Public Opinion 50-36 / +14
• ARG 64-27 / +37

New York 31

• 58-40 / +18
• Rasmussen 54-37 / +17
• Survey USA 57-39 / +18
• Marist 56-38 / +18
• Siena 52-37 / +15
• ARG 52-40 / +12

Rhode Island 4

• 60-39 / +21
• Survey USA 54-41 / +13
• ARG 58-30 / +28

Vermont 3

• 59-39 / +20
• Research 2000 53-40 / +13
• ARG 50-40 / +10

Battleground states

Hawaii 4

• 54-45 / +9
• SMS 46-45.4 Bush / +0.6 Bush
• Ward 43.3-42.6 Bush / +0.7 Bush
• ARG 51-41 / +10

Washington 11

• 53-46 / +7
• Survey USA 51-47 / +4
• Rasmussen 53-44 / +9
• Zogby 54.6-43.4 / +11.2
• Ipsos 51-42 / +9
• Elway 50-44 / +6

Oregon 7

• 52-47 / +5
• Rasmussen 53-46 / +7
• Zogby 53.9-43.8 / +10.1
• Davis 49-43 / +6
• Survey USA 50-47 / +3
• ARG 50-46 / +4
• Research 2000 49-43 / +6
• Gallup 53-45 / +8
• Riley 48-43 Bush / +5 Bush

New Jersey 15

• 53-46 / +7
• Quinnipiac 48-43 / +5
• Rasmussen 53-41 / +12
• Eagleton 45-41 / +4
• Survey USA 54-42 / +12
• F-D 45-38 / +7
• Research 2000 50-43 / +7
• ARG 50-42 / +8

Michigan 17

• 51-48 / +3
• Zogby 52-46 / +6
• Survey USA 50-47 / +3
• Rasmussen 49-47 / +2
• Mitchell/Detroit News 43-41 / +2
• Research 2000 50-46 / +4
• EPIC 49-43 / +6
• Market Research Group 45-43 / +2
• Opinion Dynamics 46-44 / +2
• ARG 48-40 / +8

Maine 4

• 53-45 / +8
• Survey USA 52-44 / +8
• Zogby 50-39 / +11
• SMS 42-39 / +3
• Critical Insights 45-42 / +3
• ARG 48-44 / +4

Pennsylvania 21

• 51-49 / +2
• Survey USA 51-47 / +4
• Rasmussen 49-47 / +2
• Quinnipiac 47-47 / tie
• Zogby 49.5-45.8 / +3.7
• Gallup 50-46 Bush / +4 Bush
• Temple University 48-47 / +1
• West Chester Univ. 49.9-44.6 / +5.3
• LA Times 48-48 / tie
• ARG 50-47 / +3
• Keystone 51-46 / +5
• Muhlenberg 48-46 / +2

New Hampshire 4

• 50-49 / +1
• ARG 49-48 Bush / +1 Bush
• Zogby 50.2-45.7 / +4.5
• Granite State 49-48 / +1
• UNH Tracking 50-46 / +4
• Research 2000 49-46 / +3
• Franklin Pierce 50.1-41.3 / +8.8
• Rasmussen 49-47 / +2
• Suffolk 46-41 / +5

Minnesota 10

• 51-48 / +3
• Zogby 51-45 / +6
• Gallup 52-44 / +8
• Minnesota Poll 49-41 / +8
• Rasmussen 48-47 Bush / +1 Bush
• Humphrey 47-44 Bush / +3 Bush
• St. Cloud St. Univ. 49-42 / +7
• Market Shares 45-43 /+2

Wisconsin 10

• 50-49 / +1 Kerry
• Zogby 50.5-45 Kerry / +5.5 Kerry
• Opinion Dynamics 48-45 Bush / +3 Bush
• Gallup 52-44 Bush / +8 Bush
• Rasmussen 48-46 Kerry / +2 Kerry
• Fox 48-45 Bush / +3 Bush
• ARG 48-47 Kerry / +1 Kerry
• Badger 48-45 Bush / +3 Bush
• Humphrey 48-47 Bush / +1 Bush
• St. Norbert 48-43 Kerry / +5 Kerry

Bush states, with electoral vote, results in bold, and latest poll spreads:

Battleground states

Iowa 7

• 50-49 / +1 Bush
• Survey USA 50-47 Kerry / +3 Kerry
• Zogby 49.5 - 44.6 Kerry / +4.9 Kerry
• Opinion Dynamics 48-44 Bush / +4 Bush
• Gallup 48-46 Bush / +2 Bush
• Rasmussen 48-48 / tie
• De Moines Register 48-45 Kerry / +3 Kerry
• Fox 48-44 Bush / +4 Bush
• Selzer 48-45 Kerry / +3 Kerry
• Research 2000 49-48 Bush / +1 Bush
• ARG 48-47 Bush / +1 Bush
• Central Surveys 46-45 Kerry / +1 Kerry

Florida 27

• 52-47 / +5 Bush
• ARG 50-48 Kerry / +2 Kerry
• Opinion Dynamics 49-44 Kerry / +5 Kerry
• Zogby 47.8-47.8 / tie
• Quinnipiac 51-43 Bush / +8 Bush
• Survey USA 49-48 Bush / +1 Bush
• Fox 49-44 Kerry / +5 Kerry
• Gallup 49-46 Kerry / +3 Kerry
• Insider Advantage 47-47 / tie
• Rasmussen 49-47 Bush / +2 Bush
• Florida Poll 48.3-46.7 / +1.6 Kerry
• LA Times 51-43 Bush / +8 Bush
• Schroth & Polling 46-46 / tie

Ohio 20 (recount in progress)

• 51-49 / +2 Bush
• Survey USA 49-47 Bush / +2 Bush
• Opinion Dynamics 50-47 Bush / +3 Bush
• Ohio Poll 50-49 Bush / +1 Bush
• Gallup 50-46 Kerry / +4 Kerry
• Zogby 49-44 Bush / +5 Bush
• Rasmussen 50-46 Bush / +4 Bush
• Columbus Dispatch 50-50 / tie
• Plain Dealer 48-45 Bush / +3 Bush
• LA Times 50-44 Kerry / +6 Kerry
• Scripps 50-46 Bush / +4 Bush
• ARG 49-47 Kerry / +2 Kerry
• TNS 50-47 Bush / +3 Bush
• Market Shares 49-45 Bush / +4Bush

New Mexico 5

• 50-49 / +1 Bush
• Zogby 51-48 Kerry / +3 Kerry
• Research and Polling 47-44 Bush / +3 Bush
• ARG 48-47 Kerry / +1 Kerry
• Rasmussen 48-44 Bush / +4 Bush

Virginia 13

• 54-45 / +9
• NBC12 49-40 / +9
• Survey USA 51-47 / +4
• Rasmussen 49-44 / +5
• Zogby 50-47 / +3
• ARG 49-43 / +6

Arizona 10

• 55-44 / +11
• Survey USA 56-41 / +15
• Rasmussen 50-45 / +5
• AZ State 47-42 / +5
• Market Solutions 47-40 / +7
• Zogby 49.7-47.3 /+2.4
• No. AZ Univ. 49-44 / +5

West Virginia 5

• 56-43 / +13
• Zogby 52.3-43 / +9.2
• Gallup 51-45 / +6
• Rasmussen 50-44 / +6
• ARG 46-46 / tie

North Carolina 15

• 56-43 / +13
• Survey USA 53-45 / +8
• Rasmussen 53-42 / +11
• Research 2000 51-45 / +6
• Zogby 51.2-47 / +4.2
• ARG 49-44 / +5

Tennessee 11

• 57-43 / +14
• Zogby 50.4-47.1 / +3.3
• Univ. of TN 54-37 / +17
• Survey USA 60-38 / +22
• Middle TN St. 50-39 / +11
• Rasmussen 49-43 / +6
• ARG 50-43 / +7

Missouri 11

• 54-46 / +8
• Zogby 51.4-47.2 / +4.2
• Survey USA 52-47 / +5
• Rasmussen 50-45 / +5
• Research 2000 48-45 / +3
• Midwest Research 49-45 / +4
• Kansas City Star 49-45 / +4

Nevada 5

• 51-48 / +3
• Survey USA 53-45 / +8
• Zogby 50-45 / +5
• Rasmussen 49-47 / +2
• Las Vegas Sun 45-41 / +4
• Research 2000 49-47 / +2
• Belden 45-41 / +4
• Gallup 52-43 / +9
• ARG 47-45 / +2

Colorado 9

• 53-46 / +7
• Zogby 49-47 / +2
• Survey USA 50-47 / +3
• Rocky Mountain News 51-42 / +9
• Ciruli 50-43 / +7
• Rasmussen 50-45 / +5
• Gallup 51-45 / +6

Arkansas 6

• 55-44 / +11
• Survey USA 48-48 / tie
• Zogby 50-47 / +3
• Univ. of Arkansas 47-40 / +7
• Arkansas News 48-48 / tie
• Rasmussen 51-45 / +6

strong Bush

Alabama 9

• 63-37 / +26
• Rasmussen 53-42 / +11
• Survey USA 57-39 / +18
• Capital Research 56-32 / +24
• ARG 54-40 / +14

Alaska 3

• 62-35 / +27
• Rasmussen 55-39 / +16
• ARG 57-30 / +27

Georgia 15

• 59-41 / +18
• Rasmussen 54-39 / +15
• Zogby 52-42 / +10
• Survey USA 57-40 / +17
• Atlanta Journal 51-41 / +10
• ARG 53-42 / +11

Idaho 4

• 68-30 / +38
• ARG 59-30 / +29

Indiana 11

• 60-39 / +21
• Survey USA 58-39 / +19
• Research 2000 56-40 / +16
• Selzer 61-33 / +28
• Rasmussen 53-40 / +13
• ARG 54-39 / +15

Kansas 6

• 62-37 / +25
• Survey USA 60-37 / +23
• Midwest Research 59-30 / +29
• ARG 57-35 / +22

Kentucky 8

• 60-40 / +20
• Survey USA 59-38 / +21
• Bluegrass 56-39 / +17
• ARG 57-39 / +18

Lousiana 9

• 57-42 / +15
• S.E. Louisiana Univ. 59-31 / +28
• Univ. of N. Orleans 50-38 / +12
• Rasmussen 52-44 / +8
• SMOR 50-32 / +18
• ARG 50-42 / +8

Mississippi 6

• 60-40 / +20
• ARG 51-42 / +9

Montana 3

• 59-38 / +21
• Montana St. Univ. 55-34 / +21
• ARG 60-32 / +28

Nebraska 5

• 67-32 / +35
• RKM 61-32 / +29
• ARG 61-30 / +31

North Dakota 3

• 63-36 / +27
• Minn. St. Univ. 55-35 / +20
• ARG 62-33 / +29

Oklahoma 7

• 66-34 / +32
• Survey USA 64-34 / +20
• Rasmussen 60-36 / +24
• ARG 55-38 / +23

South Carolina 8

• 58-41 / +17
• Survey USA 54-43 / +11
• Rasmussen 55-42 / +13
• ARG 52-40.5 / +11.5

South Dakota 3

• 60-39 / +21
• Rasmussen 54-42 / +12
• Zogby 56.5-29.1 / +27
• ARG 58-39 / +19

Texas 34

• 61-38 / +23
• Scripps 58-32 / +26
• Survey USA 59-37 / +22
• ARG 58-36 / +21
• Rasmussen 57-38 / +19

Utah 5

• 71-27 / +44
• Dan Jones 69-24 / +45
• Valley Research 68-23 / +45
• ARG 64-27 / +37

Wyoming 3

• 69-29 / +40
• ARG 65-29 / +36

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Methodology
I do not count Strategic Vision, Moore or Mason-Dixon polls (all GOP biased), or any Democratic Party polls. When 2 polls are conducted by the same firm, one with Nader and one without, I will use the poll that matches Nader's ballot status in that state.

Unless specified, the plus total represents the total spread in one poll in favor of the candidate in whose column I have placed the state. Latest polls were listed first.

The incumbent rule theory says most undecideds break for the challenger. They say the number to watch is the percentage Bush gets. This year it did not hold.

--- E. Alan Meece

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